Leading Issues in the Economy of Pakistan: Agenda for Reforms Table 7.1: Macro-Economic Projections for 2022-23 in the IMF Program and Actual Outcome in the first Quarter of 2022-23 2022-23 (Projections) 1 st Quarter (Actuals) GDP Growth Rate(%) 3.5 n.a Rate of Inflation in the CPI(%) Monthly Average 19.9 25.1 End of Period 15.0 23.1 Monetary and Credit Broad Money(% change) 12.0-0.7 Private Credit(% change) 13.3 0.0 General Government Finances Growth Rate(%) Revenues 29.3 11.5 Tax Revenues 36.5 16.2 Non-Tax Revenues-10.2-14.9 Expenditure 7.4 25.8 Current 6.0 29.0 Development 17.6-17.0 Budget Deficit-25.6 84.3 Balance of Payments Current Account Balance(% of GDP)-2.5-0.5 Foreign Direct Investment(% of GDP) 0.60 0.04 Gross Reserves(in$ billion) 16.2 7.9 (In months of imports of goods& services) 2.3 1.1 Total External Debt($ billion) 137.6 126.6 % Of GDP 37.0 34.1 Turning to the state of government finances there are already huge violations from the targets agreed with the IMF. Tax revenues are expected to show annual growth of 36.5 percent in 2022-23. Instead, they have demonstrated an increase of only 16 percent in the first quarter. Similarly, the growth rate of current expenditure is expected to be limited to only 6 percent, but the actual increase in the first quarter is as much as 29 percent. Consequently, while the year, 2022-23, is expected to close with a budget deficit that is almost 26 percent smaller than the magnitude of 2021-22, the actual deficit is 84 percent larger in the first quarter is larger than the deficit in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. It is not surprising that these large deviations have impacted on the views of the IMF about the likelihood of success of implementation of the Program in 2022-23. 84