Leading Issues in the Economy of Pakistan: Agenda for Reforms Table 15.3: Ratio of Foreign Exchange Reserves at the Start of a year and the External Financing Requirements during the year ($ billion) Years FE Reserves at Start of Year External Financing Requirement During the Year Current Account Deficit External Debt (in absolute Repayment Total terms) Ratio of FE Reserves to Financing Requirement 2015-16 13.5 5.0 3.9 8.9 1.517 2016-17 18.1 12.3 6.6 18.9 0.957 2017-18 16.1 19.2 5.2 24.4 0.659 2018-19 9.8 13.4 8.6 22.0 0.445 2019-20 7.3 4.4 11.3 15.7 0.464 2020-21 12.1 2.8 11.2 14.0 0.864 2021-22 17.3 17.3 12.1 29.4 0.588 2022-23 9.8 (Projected) 8.3 14.5 22.8 0.430 Source: SBP, IMF 15.2 Lack of Emphasis on Export-Led Growth Pakistan followed an import substitution strategy of growth up to the mid-90s. This policy was reversed by a rapid reduction in the level of import tariffs as described in the next section. Initially, there was success in achieving significant export-led growth. Table 15.4 gives estimates of the extent of export-led growth in different periods. It was as high as 48 percent in the period, 2000-01 to 2005-06. A double-digit growth rate was achieved in the volume of exports of goods and services. Thereafter, the growth rate of exports has fallen sharply. Between 2010-11 and 2015-16, the quantum of exports actually declined. 144