Human Security in Pakistan increased significantly after COVID-19 and the floods. However, there are varying estimates of the level and trend in the incidence of poverty, as shown in Box 8.3. Box 8.3: Conflicting Estimates of the Incidence of Poverty There are different estimates of the level and trend in the incidence of poverty, as shown below: % Incidence of Poverty This Report* Haroon Jamal, SPDC Pasha (2021)** Planning Commission 2001-02 30.61 31.05 2005-06 29.80 28.18 50.4 2010-11 25.01 38.68 36.8 2015-16 34.20 37.90 34.20 24.3 2017-18 31.01 32.03 2018-19 34.22 30.10 21.90 2019-20 30.96 2020-21 36.24 2022(Dec) 40.00 40.00** *Based on smoothing of SPDC series. **Based on projections from the BNU Macro-econometric Model The Planning Commission shows a sharp downward trend, which is extremely unlikely, especially between 2005-06 and 2010-11 when the GDP growth rate was, and the inflation rate was high. Post-floods and with high food inflation, it is likely that the incidence of poverty has approached 40% by the end of 2022 as shown in Box 8.3. Table 8.3: Indicator of Poverty 2001-02 2005-06 2010-11 2015-16 2017-18 2018-19 Index of Incidence of Poverty 0.679 0.703 0.547 0.572 0.666 0.571 Latest Year 0.398 We have chosen the estimates which better reflect the underlying trends in the growth rate of real per capita income and in income inequality. 74