Druckschrift 
Evaluation of four decades of pension privatization in Latin America, 1980-2000 : promises and reality
Einzelbild herunterladen
 

4. The Frustrated Attempt at a Structural Reform and the Lessons Learned for Brazil from this Study At the time of the proposal of the parametric reform and constitutional amendment, the government planned to add a clause that would allow it to propose a structural reform to replace the current PAYG system with a ful­ly-funded system, but it never did it. Paulo Guedes, Minister of Economy, Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago, who studied with Milton Friedman(Bloomberg, 2018), proposed such system, but had some similarities and differences to the Chilean model: a) workers would contribute 10% of their salary to fully-funded individual accounts and the pension would be based on the amount accumulated in such accounts plus capital returns(as in Chile); b) a minimum pension equal to a minimum wage would be ensured to low-in­come insured(similar but not equal to Chile); c) the worker or his/her union would choose the administrator of his/her accounts among three options: pri­vate, regulated by the government, administered by the state, or administered by the National Treasury through government bonds(in Chile there was no option, only private administrators); and d) the current insured(or their union) could choose between staying in the shutdown PAYG system or switching to the new fully-funded system. Labor force newcomers would have to join the new system(as in Chile, except for the union option). It was reported, with no evidence, that the reform would save R$1,236,500 million(US$228,980 million) and that the impact of the new system on the future budget would be zero or minimal in the short term(Federal Senate, 2019; Folha de São Paulo, 2019; Revista Exame, 2019). The structural reform was not formally proposed and the government has not brought it up again. From the performance evaluation of private systems in 1980-2020 conducted herein, many important lessons can be learned by Brazil about the attempt to introduce a fully-funded system: The Brazilian system is the most fragmented in Latin America, not only with the two main regimes(RGPS and RPPS) but with more than two thousand 178