6. Financial and Actuarial Sustainability Reformers made multiple promises regarding financial-economic aspects of the private system: The ownership of the individual account and the private administration of the system will encourage the insured to contribute promptly to their individual accounts and reduce evasion; the general fund and the invested capital will grow posting high capital returns; a good portion of the investment will be in domestic stocks, and aging will adversely impact the long-term sustainability of public systems, but will not affect private systems due to their design and fully funding. Contrary to the first promise, the proportion of contributing affil iates decreased in all countries after reaching a zenith; based on the first year available, this proportion also declined or stagnated, except in Chile; the worst falls took place in El Salvador(42 percentage points) and Mexico(28 points). One of the reasons that led to this drop was employer evasion and payment delays, which was ratified in four private systems. Ratifying a reform promise, the capital accumulated in the fund has actually grown, although with notable differences among countries: in Chile and Mexico the capital exceeds US$200,000 million, but is less than US$12,000 million in four countries, while as a percentage of GDP it amounts to 80% in Chile, but less than 25% in seven countries; however, the administrators control a very high percentage of GDP, granting them great power. Voluntary saving has not been successful: in five countries it ranges from zero to 0.4% of GDP and in another two 2%; nevertheless, in the Brazilian public system, voluntary savings funds amount to US$366,756 million and 20% of GDP—24 times the sum accumulated in all private systems. In most private systems, the promise that structural reform would diversify the investment portfolio has not been met: concentration on the two major instruments range between 80% to 90% in four and between 62% to 76% in the other five. The largest investment is in public debt, which ranges between 61% to 82% in four countries. This was typical in old public systems, and still exists in four private systems, as they lack a developed stock market with enough traded instruments. The second largest investment is in foreign instruments: From 36% to 45% in three countries including Chile because there are not enough national instruments 188
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Evaluation of four decades of pension privatization in Latin America, 1980-2000 : promises and reality
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