Israel Debates No. 9 28 August 2011 The Proclamation of a Palestinian State: Threat or Opportunity for Israel? The annual United Nations General Assembly opens in New York on 20 September this year. The most important item on the agenda is without a doubt the plan by the Palestinian leadership under Mahmud Abbas to request international recognition of the Palestinian state in the 1967 borders. Referring to the many years of standstill in the negotiation process with Israel and fruitless attempts to restart bilateral talks, the Palestinians emphasize that this political move is a last resort. If bilateral talks are not resumed – and there is nothing to show that they will – Mahmud Abbas is certain to take that step. Nor does he have any other options, having pursued the plan with great determination in the past few months. Back-pedalling now, without there being credible negotiations to underscore that move, would mean his political end. Israel rejects the Palestinians’ project. In May this year, in hi s speech before the American Congress, Prime Minister Netanyahu had emphatically rejected a solution to the conflict on the basis of the 1967 borders. The Israeli government’s central argument is that Palestinians taking the case for statehood to the UN would be a unilateral action, an infringement of the Oslo-agreements and an attempt to de­legitimize Israel. The government argues that such a move is not the right way to achieve peace, since without the consent and collaboration of Israel nothing materially changes the facts. Instead, frustrated hopes and expectations on the Palestinian side might lead to violent provocations and the outbreak of a third Intifada. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman warned that the Palestinians were planning bloodshed in the West Bank for the day following the vote. He demanded the annulment of the Oslo­agreements and called for the termination of relations with the Palestinian Authority(PA). Other government ministers too called for drastic measures. The left-liberal daily Haaretz in an editorial attested growing signs of hysteria to the Israeli leadership. The Palestinians can only attain full membership of the UN upon the recommendation of the UN Security Council. Since the US has already announced its veto, Palestine will not become a full-fledged member; the 194 th UN member state after South Sudan. That explains why the Palestinian leadership have instead opted to request the recognition of the Palestinian state on the basis of the 1967 borders by the General Assembly. They will need a two-thirds majority vote or 129 out of 193 member states of the UN. This would merely be a political recognition and not be binding under international law. Observers take the view that the Palestinians are likely to win at least 130 votes. 1