The role for trades unions 3 THE ROLE FOR TRADES UNIONS 3.1 THE WIDER POLICY CONTEXT To some extent the potential opportunities and challenges posed by technological developments in the retail sector mirror wider debates about digitalisation and automation. Wider debates about the future of work tend to assume that at least some jobs will be lost to automation and that many of the jobs left will need some level of retraining and labour force upskilling. In the most extreme vision, automation will result in the end of work and in the more conservative ver­sion there will be increased labour market segmentation with greater labour market insecurity and more frequent periods of unemployment for some workers and a need to retrain and/or change occupation. As might be expected, policy orientations to these possible futures vary depending upon the extent to which they are seen as positive or negative and the degree to which these changes are seen as inevitable or can be shaped. These orientations have been characterised as: those that would embrace the automation of jobs as free­dom from work or freedom for entrepreneurs(Advocates); those who accept that the robots are coming and would adapt policy to cope with the challenges(Accommodators); those who seek to contest some of the uses of digitalisation and organise against it or ameliorate its worst impacts(An­tagonists); and those who would seek to marshal the use of digitalisation to harness it for good(Alternativists). 35 While policy responses are still in their early stages, a few international organisations, such as the OECD, ILO and Euro­pean Political Strategy Centre(EPSC]) have put forward policy recommendations. 36 The challenges these recommendations seek to address include: increased unemployment and occu­pational restructuring due to job destruction, changing skills needs due to job reorganisation and occupational restruc­turing, reconsideration of the timing and location of work, lack of social dialogue and loss of employee voice due to workforce fragmentation, rising inequality due to increasing job polarisation, more frequent periods of unemployment and labour-market transitions, and reduced hours/pay for workers with some skills due to reduced demand. Policy rec­ommendations aimed at addressing these challenges range from the modest to the radical, depending on the severity of expected impact of these challenges, as summarised in Figure 2. From modest to severe these range from better labour market information, advice and guidance(IAG) and a more responsive educational system to universal basic income(UBI) or citizens dividend funded by a ›robot tax‹ or other innovative way of raising revenues lost by reduced levels of employment and/or working hours. While few focus group participants were anticipating the end of work due to the current technological developments in the retail sector, some of the challenges and possible re­sponses reflect these wider debates. 3.2 TRADE UNION RESPONSES TO DIGITALISATION IN RETAIL The retail sector is dominated by low rates of unionisation. Union density has been in slow decline across Europe for several decades, and ranges from around 50% in northern European countries like Sweden and Denmark, to around 10% or below in the UK and much of central and eastern Europe. Despite these large discrepancies, virtually every­where is union density below not only national averages, but also below service sector averages. It further translates into relatively low coverage for collective bargaining agreements relative to other sectors. 37 Partnership and service approaches to trade unionism dominate over classical or antagonistic relations between management and organised workers. 38 Days lost to industrial action hit historic lows during the late 2010s, signifying both the relative weakness of organisation in the sector and predominantly obliging stance toward management. These existing parameters and legacies shape – but do not determine – how trade unions in the retail sector can respond to accelerating digitalisation and automation dynamics. This section examines five significant areas of focus arising from discussions with focus group participants: training and skill­ing; research and education; union-management relations; recruitment strategies; and policy frameworks. It combines observations on trade unions’ current role and challenges posed by digitalisation in the retail sector with recommenda­tions for trade unions going forwards. 3.2.1 Training and reskilling Ongoing technological change will require workers to re­skill if they are not to fall victim to reductions in job quality, deskilling, or technological unemployment arising from dig­italisation. Indeed, even in the absence of the digitalisation 13