Policy Options in the Caspian Sea Region Friedemann Müller This presentation is divided into a first part describing briefly the energy resource situation in the Caspian Region as well as the production outlooks and its contribution to world energy demand and supply while the second part offers seven theses dealing with policy options based on the resource situation. I. Oil and Natural Gas Resources Different from regions where large quantities of oil and natural gas are produced over decades like the Persian Gulf, Alaska or the North Sea, the Caspian resources are not well explored, although the first oil was found there far more than a hundred years ago. The Soviet Union concentrated its efforts during the 1970s and 1980s on Western Siberia. The effect was a decline in Caspian oil production lasting to the mid 1990s, although during the 1980s some new investments were drawn mainly to the Kazakh share of the Caspian region. Estimates on oil resources show therefore a wide range between proven and possible. The often – preferably by elder statesmen – quoted figure of 200 billion barrels is a product of fantasy not based on careful research.“Possible,” however, is a term without a definite upper limit, so it permits to include some fantasy. It seems, however, to be reasonable to follow the U.S. government study(table 1), which expresses in its wide range of a lower(16 billion barrels) and an upper limit(178 billion barrels) the main stream estimates. 7