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Global Europe and great power competition : options and possible solutions from an Eastern European perspective
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FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG GLOBAL EUROPE AND GREAT POWER COMPETITION 1 INTRODUCTION For most of the XX th Century, Eastern Europe was little more than an appendage to great powers' sundry and disparate interests in the region. In the aftermath of the Soviet collapse and end of the Cold War, much of the seductive appeal of joining Western­crafted organisations such as NATO and the European Community was related to the notions of pursuit of freedom, economic prosperity and cultural modernity, but also a hope of stepping into a»more integrated world« ¹, where power competition between states was held in check by»a continuous pattern of institutionalised cooperation« ². And, in practice, the project of European integration since 1989 has been embraced by Eastern Europe as an alternative model to great power competition. Thirty years later, Eastern Europe is an integral part of what is now a wider and more united Europe, boasting the biggest single market in the world, the world's largest diplomatic corps, and the highest levels of spending on development. However, the international environment is rapidly unravelling and geopolitical rivalry, including in areas like technology, infrastructure development, trade, and sea power, is ratcheting up to new levels. Multilateralism has arrived at a critical juncture. Geopolitical realities, with a rapidly rising China and a revisionist and assertive Russia, is facing Europe with difficult strategic choices and challenges. Unless it can leverage its collective potential to protect and promote its distinctive values, qualities, and policies around the globe, and play a crucial, stabilising role in an increasingly unstable world, Europe risks becoming an impotent observer, sidelined in areas of direct vital interest or, worse yet, a playground for other global powers. Like no other part of the European continent, Eastern Europe is directly experiencing the pressures associated with re-awakened forces of great power competition. Moreover, despite strenuous efforts to strengthen foreign policy cohesion among the Member States, the EU itself has so far produced very little of the strategic coherence that is so sorely needed to navigate a fast­changing world. Furthermore, this erosion in foreign policy cohesion is exacerbating the East-West and North-South divide, exposing vulnerabilities which are being astutely exploited by others. While recognising that on this subject the countries that are generally assigned to the EU's eastern part may have different, and sometimes very specific, views that need to be explored in their own right, this paper seeks to offer an assessment from a general Eastern European perspective of the options available for EU foreign policy in navigating through a complex and fast­changing tempest of mounting competition between the great powers. Whereas the opinions characterised here as»Eastern European constitute an aggregation, approximation and generalisation of political options and opinions seated in Central and Eastern Europe, this paper's intention is not to highlight divisions such as»old Europe« versus»new Europe«, but instead to underscore what primarily needs to be addressed inside the Union and in what manner, while also seeking to adopt an inclusive approach when it comes to Eastern perspectives. There are burning questions which warrant deeper-going analysis in the East as well as in the West of the continent. After all, there can be no common European strategic culture without a strategic dialogue among its Member States. Is there an Eastern European understanding of strategic sovereignty for Europe? How does this understanding affect perceptions in this part of Europe regarding the strategic challenges facing the European bloc? Based on these questions, the following pages try to reflect on how the EU's ability to cope with these strategic challenges could be improved and what direction the EU should take when dealing with today's great powers, be they friends or competitors. Spelling out perceptions and attempting to come up with some answers could offer focus and clarity of purpose for what a united Europe»on its feet« could look like in the world going forward. 2