Druckschrift 
Awaiting the German EU Presidency : challenges and options from an Eastern European perspective
Entstehung
Einzelbild herunterladen
 

FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG AWAITING THE GERMAN EU PRESIDENCY: CHALLENGES AND OPTIONS FROM AN EASTERN EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE Eastern bloc of the club like the financial talks, so this should be a strong point on Berlin's radar in the months to come: bilateral relationships will become less important than the aim to secure as much EU money as possible in the coming years. In spite of the Corona crisis taking front stage, Brexit negotiations will continue to be a hot potato. Previous challenges, such as rethinking the MFF in the face of the loss of the UK's contribution and the need to raise the future EU budget framework to more than one per cent of the Gross National Income of EU Member States, are still expected to fuel disagreements during upcoming negotiations, while the EU's less-developed Member States will most likely continue to maintain hard-line positions regarding cohesion and agriculture funds, to the detriment of green recovery perspectives, including as a means of post-crisis recovery. Further negotiations will showcase stark differences in immediate needs and understanding of crisis-management instruments among EU Member States and, despite their economic interconnectedness, it is likely that political coordination will still be limited between East and West, North and South. To a certain degree, not only political coordination may be seen as less than adequate. Future steps to find a way out of the economic slump may turn out to be too disconnected as well. In its new proposal laid out by the Commission in May, the objectives of the Green Deal strategy to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 remain at the heart of the Coronavirus economic recovery plan. Meant to kick-start the economy and green it at the same time, including by injecting funds into boosting sales of electric vehicle, into so-called»green mortgages« and the development of green hydrogen that can curb emissions in heavy industries, many CEE Member States may not be convinced by the plan. Considering how limited resources available for investment, innovation and development are in these countries compared to Western European states, some of these proposals may be overly ambitious or come at a price many CEE leaders are not prepared, or not willing, to pay. Opposition to green policies across the EU has cropped up as one of the most dangerous negative trends in the context of the pandemic, not only because it consolidates a narrative along populist lines in countries like Sweden, France and Germany, but also because it hinders one of the European Union's key opportunities to reaffirm global leadership. Voters whose jobs and financial security are threatened by the effects of the pandemic may prove more responsive to waves of opposition towards green policies, which imply a transition stage and unavoidable risks to some economies, especially in Central and Eastern European countries. Targets for reducing carbon emissions have already widened the East-West rift, as the Eastern »half« is still highly dependent on coal for energy production. Under the next Multiannual Financial Framework, recovery plans meant to also accommodate green policies must pursue a balance between the challenges of the current situation and real opportunities in the near future. Consequently,»Green Recovery« should focus more on recovery and less on green when Berlin talks to its Eastern partners. Far more palatable and in line with their current expectations would be issues revolving around agricultural funding and rural development. The current crisis puts increased pressure on Germany as well as the entire political bloc, as major programs such as the Common Agricultural Policy(CAP) will be expiring by the end of this year and negotiations are ongoing. The final vote on the new CAP is expected to be held this autumn, and this will determine EU agricultural policies for the next seven years, although the uncertainty caused by the global pandemic has already affected agricultural markets, food supply chains, and farm incomes. On 27 May, as part of the new MFF proposal, the European Commission proposed the allocation of an additional EUR 20 billion to support the»greening« of the European farming sector through the recently-launched Farm to Fork strategy, intended to consolidate the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development(EAFRD). Initially, in 2018, the Commission envisioned a roughly 30% cut for EAFRD, which has now been reduced to around 10% compared to the 2014-2020 CAP budget. This concession may positively impact negotiations among EU Member States, as well as Central and Eastern European countries' readiness to support the Green Deal, considering the previous opposition of countries such as Romania and Poland to massive cuts in agricultural funding. WHILE SAFEGUARDING COHESION FOR THE NEXT FINANCIAL CYCLE Coordination in the post-pandemic economic recovery stage, as well as with a view to tackling a potential second wave of Coronavirus, poses a risk of deepening East-West division in terms of future budget allocations meant to improve cohesion. Aside from the issue of migration, the EU's cohesion policy has been one of the few areas where the interests of Eastern Europeans have appeared coordinated and well aligned over the years, including as a response to the West's endorsement of a »two-speed« Europe during the Versailles summit of France, Germany, Italy and Spain held in June 2017. In 2020, the issue of injecting funds into policies meant to drive cohesion may benefit from support in Europe's South, as Italy and Spain are now among the countries most afflicted by the pandemic. An honest and balanced approach to the future of cohesion can be added to the general expectations from German EU Presidency and the Trio Program to be continued by Portugal and Slovenia. The EU's cohesion policy, generally backed more by the EU's southern Member States and less by the northern»half«, has so far driven growth and economic convergence, although at different paces. Several newer EU Member States in the CEE have already experienced growth with regard to key indicators, such as GDP per capita, surpassing some of the bloc's old Member States, including Greece and Portugal. However, efforts to close the income gap between the East and the West and to drive social convergence have lagged behind, in terms of pensions, social security nets, state-funded benefits and allocations to public services, including- but not limited to- the public funding of healthcare systems. Thus, enhancing the resilience of public 4