President. 5 Thus, the stage was set for the Hague summit by lowering expectations, careful diplomacy in the preced­ing months, and the US use of military force against Iran (later forcing the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Iran). Post-summit assessment NATO’s Hague summit went as planned, and in that sense it was a success. The summit prompted some difficult questions regarding Europe’s security and defence depend­ency on the United States, however, as well as how that re­lationship will play out in the coming years. Also, the allies decided to postpone important decisions regarding Russia and Ukraine for later. The summit, however, was about safeguarding Europe’s security interests. Faced with the prospect of US abandonment, the European allies did everything they could to secure a US commitment to Eu­rope’s security. From the perspective of the Baltic states, the summit suc ­ceeded in two important ways. First, the United States managed to extract a commitment from its European allies to spend much more on defence. This is a subject that President Trump has raised constantly since 2017. This hike in defence spending should eventually make NATO’s Euro­pean pillar more powerful militarily. 6 The Hague summit declaration makes it clear that the allies»will allocate at least 3.5 per cent of GDP annually based on the agreed definition of NATO defence expenditure by 2035 to re ­source core defence requirements«. 7 Thus, the Hague sum­mit produced a»substantial and important deliverable – a new defence investment pledge«. 8 Regarding the 1.5 per cent of GDP pledge, however, there is as yet no agreed-up ­on way to determine whether money will be spent on de­fence-related objectives or not. Furthermore, broadening the definition of what counts as defence spending risks opening the flood gates to»creative accounting«. 9 Second, for the Baltic states, there is as yet no substitute for the US commitment to European security. In this re­spect, European allies secured a commitment from the US to Article 5 and President Trump had some positive things to say about his European allies. The first paragraph of the summit declaration clearly states that allies reconfirm their»ironclad commitment to collective defence as en­shrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty – that an at ­tack on one is an attack on all«. 10 The summit conveys the message that Trump has often disparaged the United States’ European allies because of their lack of commit­ment to fair burden-sharing within NATO. With a renewed commitment to spend more on defence, the Transatlantic relationship has been repaired and European allies can count on US security assistance. A renewed US commit­ment to European security bolsters NATO deterrence vis-à­vis Russia and buys Europe time to rearm. In short, the Hague summit was mainly about rebalancing NATO bur­den-sharing. 11 While NATO’s Hague summit eased Europe’s fears of aban­donment, there are nevertheless still reasons for European NATO member states(including the Baltic states) to be concerned. First, the European allies are unlikely to live up to their commitment to spend up to 5 per cent of GDP on defence. While the summit declaration calls for the allies to submit annual plans that demonstrate incremental pro­gress in attaining the 5 per cent objective, some(even most) are unlikely to live up to the defence investment pledge. Higher defence spending is needed to meet the ca­pability targets identified in NATO’s defence plans, but it is uncertain whether the allies will keep their part of the bar­gain. This would anger President Trump, who is particularly sensitive to what he sees as free riding. Also, for Europe’s own sake, failure to deliver on the defence spending pledge would be detrimental for NATO’s efforts to deter Russia in the Baltic region. Second, President Trump’s visit to The Hague for the NATO summit was carefully planned and prepared. It went as planned, but burden-sharing disagreements are only partially to blame for transatlantic tensions. These have been compounded by economic disagreements and Trump’s efforts to address so-called trade imbalances by using tariffs. Furthermore, Trump’s views on NATO may change once again. Shortly before the NATO summit in The Hague President Trump was musing about different interpretations of Article 5, 12 and he has questioned the US commitment to the security of the NATO allies before. There is little reason to expect that his praise for NATO will last. In the end, even the European commitment to spend more on defence may not be enough to secure US engagement in Europe. 5  Will Weissert(2025):»Dear Donald.« Trump Posts Fawning Private Text from NATO Chief on Social Media. Associated Press, 24 June; available at: https://apnews.com/ article/trump-rutte-text-message-nato-signal-6263810ac3ca77a5bf7366499f51c772 6  This is a subject that President Trump emphasised numerous times during the press conference in The Hague. Defense Now(2025): President Trump Takes Over the World Forum in The Hague, Netherlands. Hague, 25 June; available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYsPMJVj4gw 7  NATO(2025): The Hague Summit Declaration, paragraph 3. 25 June; available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_236705.htm 8 Tony Lawrence(2025): The Hague Summit: Mission Accomplished. Tallinn: ICDS; available at: https://icds.ee/en/the-hague-summit-mission-accomplished/ 9 John R. Deni/Ryan Arick(2025): What Counts as»Defense« in NATO’s Potential 5 Percent Spending Goal? Washington, Atlantic Council, 20 June; available at: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-counts-as-defense-in-natos-potential-5-percent-spending-goal/ 10  NATO(2025): The Hague Summit Declaration, paragraph 1. The Hague, 25 June; available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_236705.htm 11 Joshua C. Huminski(2025): Hague Summit Series: Trump and the Rebalancing of NATO. Tallinn: ICDS; available at: https://icds.ee/en/hague-summit-series-trump-and­the-rebalancing-of-nato/ 12 Chris Lunday/Jake Traylor/Laura Kayali(2025): Trump Casts Doubt on Article 5 Commitment en Route to NATO Summit. Brussels, Politico, 24 June; available at: https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-nato-summit-sidesteps-article-5-mark-rutte-eu-defense-budget-russia-vladimir-putin-iran-israel-strikes-qatar/ NATO summit in The Hague: the Baltic perspective 3