The Day of Reckoning The disruption of the liberal international order has been unwelcome news for Europe. The continent had championed the order and become its principal bene­ficiary, resulting in a period of peace and affluence— an experiment that was perhaps the closest approxi­mation of the neoliberal ideal depicted by Francis Fukuyama in The End of History. 1 The liberal order has periodically faced significant challenges, and many in the Global South have been permanently discontented with its selective applica­tion and inequality. But the United States, with its power and dominance, was always there to protect the order. Such was Europe’s total faith in the project, and in the US anchor that offered it apparent permanence, that it had stopped planning for the day of reckoning: a day when America’s commitment to the transatlan­tic partnership would be called into question. But now that day has arrived, courtesy of US presi­dent Donald Trump who has acted as a catalyst for the rupture of the system. And Europe has been caught woefully unprepared. Although Europe is still the world’s third-largest economy(by purchasing power parity), its most vibrant trading bloc, and home to two nuclear weapon states, the shock has been severe enough to raise an existential question about its future. Will Europe be able to continue as a united entity or will it begin to unravel along histori­cal ethnolinguistic and geographical lines? Naturally, European leaders are still hoping for some­thing as close as possible to the old order to be pre­served. The best-case scenario for Europe would be to revert to traditional transatlantic relations, while con­tinuing along the current trajectory of seeking strate­gic autonomy, the latter now inevitable given Europe’s current experience with the US. In this scenario, the US returns to its previous role as the provider of glob­al security but partners with a Europe that is no longer entirely dependent on its military capabilities and is prepared to do some of the heavy lifting. This was essentially the message from Germany’s chancellor Friedrich Merz at the recent Munich Security Conference. Merz acknowledged Europe’s excessive re­liance on and rift with the US. However, he also argued that NATO was still a shared competitive advantage for both sides, and called for transatlantic trust to be re­paired and revived. 2 The problem is that this scenario is largely dependent on how President Trump chooses to position himself vis-à-vis Europe. It would require Trump to continue viewing the West as a united bloc, abandoning claims on any NATO member territories, remaining in lockstep with Europe on Ukraine, and refraining from undermin­ing his allies by meddling in their politics or using trade wars as a tool to get his way. Europe can no longer bank on this under the present circumstances. The current trajectory seems to suggest a bleaker fu­ture with transatlantic relations remaining troubled as long as Trump is in office. Apart from Europe’s resent­ment toward American officials for continuing to talk at rather than to them, there are also growing differ­ences between the transatlantic partners over a range of global and policy issues: immigration, respect for the United Nations(UN) and international institutions, cli­mate, tariffs, protectionist trade policies, use of Hobbe­sian geoeconomics, and the notion of the partnership being rooted in a shared Christian faith, to name but a few. Even during what was a largely conciliatory speech at the Munich Security Conference, US secretary of state Marco Rubio’s only offer was a shared vision based on“white, Christian, MAGA terms,” as The Guardian put it. 3 Acquiescing to this would spell the end of post-World War II Europe as we know it. But for Europe to resist the US on its own would require an ac­celerated push toward strategic autonomy, including the ability to defend Europe without NATO, a scenario that is unlikely to come about in the immediate future. So, where does this leave Europe? Can it preserve what­ever is left of the liberal agenda—human rights, nuclear nonproliferation, the responsibility to protect, women, peace, and security—while retaining its economic prow­ess even when dealing with the United States, China, and Russia in a decidedly Hobbesian world? Terra incognita When Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney took the podium at Davos on January 20 this year, he presented an alternative vision for US allies. 4 1  Fukuyama, Francis,“The End of History?” The National Interest 16(1989): 3–18. 2 “US and Europe Must‘Repair and Revive Transatlantic Ties’: Germany’s Merz,” Al Jazeera, February 13, 2026. 3  Jon Henley,“Rubio’s Munich speech was an offer of friendship – but on white, Christian, Maga terms,” The Guardian, February 18, 2026. 4  World Economic Forum,“Davos 2026: Special Address by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada,” January 2026. 2 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung e.V.