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Centring security in a peripheral state : shifts in Iceland's security policy post-Ukraine
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EU cooperation and challenges Iceland is not a member state of the Europe­an Union(EU) but is highly integrated in European policies via its membership of the European Economic Area(EEA). The current Icelandic government will call a referendum in August 2026 on whether Iceland should reopen its accession negotiations with the EU. Icelandic membership of the EU is highly contested within the country, and the cam­paign for and against membership is likely to become heated. While economic aspects, particularly related to fisheries, are dominant in the debate, security has recently come into stronger focus. While pro-EU parties argue that the EU would increase Icelands security in the world, anti-EU parties tend to argue that EU membership cannot provide such benefits as it is not a formal military alliance. During a visit to Iceland in July 2025, Ursu ­la von der Leyen and Icelands Prime Minis ­terannounced that the EU and Iceland aimed to sign an Agreement on Security and Defence Partnership. According to von der Leyen, this would bring Iceland into the European Security and Defence network and include access to SAFE, a 150 billion euro joint defence procurement pro­gramme. As a political signal, the signing was post­poned when the EU imposed tariffs on silica on states outside the EU, including Iceland and Norway in late 2025, contrary to their heavy opposition and lobbying efforts, as it is perceived to go against the regulations of the EEA. In early January 2026, Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir announced that Iceland would continue to work on a bilateral defence agreement with the EU. The benefits of such an agreement, she noted, would include defence against hybrid threats, inclusion in the EUs space defence pro­gramme, and access to technology in the future. According to a survey on international politics conducted in January and February 2026, the Icelandic population is equally divided on EU membership; 42% are for, while 42% stand against, with 16% undecided. Therefore, it is hard to tell what Icelanders will eventually decide. 7 If the Icelandic population votes to reopen the accession talks during the EU ref­erendum, a serious discussion on EU mem­bership in Norway is likely to take place. 8 Both states have benefited from membership of the EEA and EFTA, but if either Iceland or Norway became an EU member it would impact the other drastically. 7 Böðvarsdóttir E.M.(2026). Þjóðin klofin gagnvart ESB og fylgi við NATO á hreyfingu. Vísir. https://www.visir.is/g/20262838574d/thjodin-tvik­lofin-gagn-vart-esb-og-fylgi-vid-nato-a-hreyfingu 8  Sæberg Á.(2026). Formaður systurflokks Sjálfstæðisflokksins vill Noreg í ESB. Vísir. Formaður systurflokks Sjálfstæðisflokksins vill Noreg í ESB- Vísir 6 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung e.V.