Future outlook Iceland faces various challenges but also opportunities in the development of the state’s security policy. It must navigate a rap­idly evolving geopolitical landscape and increased Great Power competition in the Arctic region, while also facing a rapidly changing environment and climate change, which may also pose a security risk. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a debate has evolved on whether Iceland should establish its own military. Although there are a few notable individuals in both academia and among former diplomats who favour this policy direction, the consensus remains that Iceland should not establish its own military. The establishment of an Icelandic military is therefore unlikely to happen any time soon. Another debate has evolved around whether Iceland should be supporting Ukraine by buying weapons for its defence. This topic became heated during Iceland’s presidential elections in 2024. This is notable because foreign policy is not often the main topic of discussion, especially in political debates. Iceland has contributed ISK 4 billion annual ­ly(around 27.85 million euros) to the Czech fund for purchasing weapons for the Ukraini­an army. 14 Iceland’s president, Halla Tómas­dóttir, has been very critical of this policy shift, both during her presidential campaign and after, arguing that Iceland should be a promoter of peace and not buy weapons. Her position did not find support among the political leadership at the time – then Minis ­ter for Foreign Affairs Þórdís Kolbrún Reyk­fjörð Gylfadóttir(Independence Party) called such a position‘arrogant’, i.e., to force Ukrainians not to buy what they need, but what Icelanders might feel more comfortable with. 15 Despite the change in government, it is unlikely that Iceland’s position has changed and it is thus likely to continue to contribute to the fund in the future. Looking ahead, Iceland is likely to further strengthen its ties with European partners, with particular emphasis on cooperation with the Nordic countries, the UK and Germany. These relationships provide Iceland with important political, economic and security linkages within Europe, complementing its transatlantic orientation and NATO commit­ments. Together, these partnerships offer Ice­land avenues for diversifying its external relations while reinforcing its position within established European and transatlantic frameworks. Iceland has good relations with the other Nordic states and participates in the Nordic Defence Cooperation(NORDEFCO). In the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, a clearer emphasis on Nordic cooperation has become apparent. Sweden and Finland’s membership of NATO have further strength­ened the relationship between the Nordic 14 Kjartansson K.(2024). Ólík sýn á hvort Ísland eigi að styðja vörn Úkraínumanna. Vísir. https://www.visir. is/g/20242578731d/o-lik-syn-a-hvort-is-land-eigi-ad-stydja-vorn-ukrainu-manna 15 Gylfadóttir, Þ. K. R.(2024). Hví styður Ísland vopnakaup fyrir Úkraínu? Vísir. https://www.visir.is/g/20242581243d/hvi-stydur-is-land-vopna­kaup-fyrir-ukrainu 10 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung e.V.