MARC SAXER| THAILAND CAUGHT IN THE VERTIGO OF CHANGE 1. Introduction After years of political confrontation in the streets and in the courts, after»hot« and»silent« coup d’états and vio­lent clashes, Thailand has called for an election on July 3.»New elections« were the battle cry of»red« demon­strations that paralysed Bangkok’s business district from March to May 2010 and led to a violent crackdown, leav­ing 92 dead and 2000 wounded. 1 Now, voters have the choice between»red« and»yellow«, but the lack of enthusiasm before the elections indicates a grow­ing fatigue over the political divide. As if to showcase Thailand’s Kafkaesque political situation, the two main rivals – the obscurant-turned-pop-star sister of the for­mer Prime Minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, and the pho­togenic acting Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva – are no more than replacement characters for the real powers behind the scenes. Still, political parties are campaigning passionately, international observers have been invited to guarantee an acceptable process, and the winners of the elections have a realistic chance to form the next government. So, has the»Land of Smiles« finally re­turned to democracy? The elections open a window of opportunity to strike a deal between competing elites. However, this pa­per will argue that the deeper crisis of Thailand can only be resolved if the political, social, and cultural order can be adapted to the needs of a rapidly mo­dernising society. Thailand will only find peace if the governance system develops mechanisms to effec­tively manage a complex economy and mediate the perpetual conflict that is typical for a pluralist society. How this adaptation is organised is just as important as the institutional setup resulting from that process. A new social contract cannot be imposed from the top, but needs to be negotiated in an inclusive and rule-based process. 2. The Elections: Turning a Page or Another Round of Conflict? For weeks all opinion polls have been drawing the same picture: Phuea Thai, the party led by controversial former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra while in exile, seems 1. Human Rights Watch, Descent into Chaos – Thailand’s 2010 Red Shirt Protests and the Government Crackdown, May 2011, http://www.hrw. org/en/node/98399/section/2. set to win the most votes in the elections on July 3 – provided that these elections take place, and are rea­sonably free and fair. The Democrat Party of acting Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva could come in second. Third strongest will probably be Bhumjaithai, which is stirred from behind the scenes by banned power-broker Newin Chidchob. Two more successor parties hope for good results: Chartthaipattana and Chart Pattana Puea Pandin. Such a result would not be without irony. Many candidates of these smaller parties used to be part of the»red« coalition government led by the People’s Power Party – Phuea Thai’s judicially banned predecessor – before their parties were disbanded and their leaders banned by the Constitutional Court. Chartthaipattana’s leader, Chumpol Silpa-Archa, recently cited»irresist­ible pressure from the invisible hand« that made leaders switch sides and join their adversaries to form the Abhi­sit government. As a consequence, the lack of legitimacy of this»yellow« government – enabled through a silent coup of the judiciary and brokered by the military – was the main reason for the»red« protesters to call for new elections one year ago. The key variable for the great bargaining after the elections is the number of seats in the House of Repre­sentatives that Phuea Thai and the Democrats would respectively win. However, their high hopes could be derailed by the new election law rushed through par­liament before the elections. The return to»one-man, one vote« in smaller constituencies could benefit locally rooted smaller parties. In northern and north-eastern »red« strongholds, Bhumjaithai could prove to be a dangerous competitor. While Phuea Thai is still suffe­ring from the ban of 113 of its top leaders, Bhumjaithai candidates have managed to hold on to many consti­tuents who voted for them as part of the»red« coali­tion in 2007. The move of the Bhumjaithai-dominated Ministry of the Interior to exchange governors and dis­trict chiefs in»red« strongholds should work to give the party additional mobilisation power. Vote-buying – Thailand’s endemic disease – will surely further dis­tort election results. On the other side of the aisle, the Democrats are particularly vulnerable to the campaign of the People’s Alliance for Democracy(PAD) to boycott the election. The conservative»yellow« constituency of the Democrats is more likely to follow this call. With no bigger party gaining an absolute majority, the support of smaller parties will be needed. Without a doubt, they will accept the highest bid. 2