MARC SAXER| THAILAND CAUGHT IN THE VERTIGO OF CHANGE Deal? Or No Deal? In this dead-end situation, the elections could at least open a window of opportunity for a rapprochement between the competing elite factions. Such a deal could include the Phuea Thai forgoing the position of the Prime Minister’s office in exchange for the»yellow« camp ap­proving amnesty for Thaksin. Smaller parties hope for this option, such as the Chat Thai Pattana party under Deputy Prime Minister Sanan Kachornprasart, who has been campaigning for himself as a compromise candi­date with the help of conciliation initiatives. A»Grand Bargain« needs to create a win-win situation for all key actors. If some players are left out of the equa­tion, the continuation or even escalation of the conflict could work in their favour by strengthening their nego­tiating position. This holds particular true for the hard core of PAD. Without Thaksin as the enemy, the fate of the»yellow« shirts is probably sealed. Should Phuea Thai go ahead and press for amnesty to clear the way for Thaskin’s return,»yellow« rage could again hit the street. For sure, the military leadership will use its veto power to safeguard its interests. In case a»red« admin­istration sidelines the officers involved in the coup of 2006 and the crackdown of 2010 or deny the army their say in staffing the Ministry of Defence, the military could decide to step in again. Under the pretext of»fighting drugs« or»vocational training projects«, legions of sol­diers were deployed in»red«-leaning constituencies and promptly accused of intimidating villagers. The war of words between the army chief and Phuea Thai further fuelled concerns over the role of the military after the elections. The artificially inflamed border conflict with Cambodia could easily be exploited as a pretext for the self-styled»guardians of the nation« to intervene once again in the political process. However, in the global context of the»Arab Spring«, tanks in the streets seem unlikely. A far more»elegant« solution would be another»silent coup« by the judi­ciary. Disbanding political parties and banning political leaders already proved to be an effective tool in bring­ing down the»red« administrations of Samak Sundar­avej and Somchai Wongsawat in 2008. The dirty work of suppressing civilian dissent also seems to have been left to the judiciary, which has dutifully been convicting regime critics and shutting down media on an unprece­dented scale. The extent to which the judiciary can be exploited   9 was further demonstrated when it dropped corruption charges that could have led to a ban of the Democrat Party on flimsy procedural grounds. Accord­ingly, the military was allegedly collecting proof against the Phuea Thai candidates during the elections in order to pressure a»red« administration, or even avert it entirely. Thaksin, too, is flexing his muscles. To counter the end­less rumours about an imminent coup, he threatened that another putsch would end in bloodshed. This in­vokes memories of the bomb attacks that rocked Bang­kok last year. Another wave of»red« shirt protests seems likely if Phuea Thai is denied to form a government after an electoral victory, or if another»red« government is taken down by the judiciary on flimsy pretexts. Society Fights over a New Political and Social Hierarchy This indicates that the crisis that holds Thailand in its grip runs deeper than the political conflict between compe­ting elites and their foot soldiers. On a structural level, the political conflict is the struggle over a new balance of power between the different poles of society. The wrestling over a new political and social hierarchy is taking place against the backdrop of changing power relations driven by socio-economic development. New economic elites and a broader middle class depend to a much lesser degree on the patronage of traditional elites, undermining their position of power. In order to resolve the political conflict, key actors must succeed in finding a new balance of power. 4. The Transformation Crisis: Thailand Needs a New Political, Social, and Cultural Order The political conflict over a new balance of power plays out against the backdrop of a deeper transformation. Socio-economic development de-legitimises the politi­cal, social, and cultural order of Thailand by overstrain­ing its governance system, and undermines the ideas, values, discourses, and identities on which the order is built. Therefore, settling on a new political and social 9. Prasit Pivavatnapanich, Kanmüang Thai lang pratpahan(…)[Politics af ­ter the Coup: The Revival of Bureaucratic Power], Bangkok 2009, 24 40; Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, The Judiciary and the Democracy, 20.4.2008, http://www.prachatai.com/english/node/601. 8