MARC SAXER| THAILAND CAUGHT IN THE VERTIGO OF CHANGE 4.3 In Sum: The Crisis Can Only Be Solved Through the Adaptation of Order The political conflict can only be understood by recogni­sing the underlying legitimacy crisis of the political, so­cial, and cultural order. The crisis goes well beyond the failure of individuals or institutions. The centralist, semi­authoritarian governance system, the vertical social hier­archy, and the unified political culture are no longer able to deal with the complexity, plurality, and conflict of the Thai economy and society. At the same time, emancipa­ted citizens are confidently demanding a more responsive state, more efficient political leaders, and a greater say in the affairs that matter to all. To solve the political con­flict, it takes more than just a»Grand Bargain« between opposing elites. The crisis can only be overcome if the political, social, and cultural order is successfully adapted to meet the needs of a rapidly transforming Thai society. 5. How to Organise the Renegotiation of the Social Contract? Most modern societies had to go through similar trans­formation crises before developing into prosperous demo­cracies. 16 Accordingly, the crisis in Thailand can only be re­solved by adopting the traditional order to changing poli­tical, economic, social, and cultural framework conditions. This crisis frames the narrower political conflict, which calls for a re-balancing of the social and political hierarchies. Different Approaches to Solve the Crisis Not all actors are convinced of this need to shape trans­formation by adapting to the new conditions. Traditional ruling elites and their»yellow« foot soldiers struggle to uphold the vertical order. Their perception of the crisis is limited to the political confrontation with a competing coalition of actors. Accordingly, a broad phalanx of allies struggles to ward off that challenge by all means necessary. Others aim at shaping the transformation, but disagree on which means are most effective. The»institutional engineers« are trying to resolve the crisis by drafting a new constitution(it would be Constitution No. 20 since the end of absolute monarchy) and by reforming the 16. Philipp Blom, The Vertigo Years: Europe, 1900-1914, New York, 2008. institutional framework. Accordingly, a vast number of commissions, committees, subcommittees, and initia­tives are searching for the most effective election law, party law, etc., for the Thai context. This technocratic and sometimes elitist approach overlooks the funda­mental fact that a legal order will always be the result of a power struggle. Simply put: real democracy cannot be decreed, it needs to be hard-won. A third group, the»normative rationalists«, is dedicated to dialogue and reconciliation. Civil society activists, el­der statesmen, academics, and journalists struggle tire­lessly and at great personal risk for human rights, but often get sidelined in the turmoil of the political conflict. Reconciliation initiatives have achieved encouraging re­sults on the local level, but are doomed as long as the leaders of both camps believe they can eventually prevail over the other side. Similar to the institutional engineers, the normative rationalists believe in the universality of human rights and the enlightened reason of all conflict parties, and sometimes overlook the power structures of the vertical order and the vested interests of actors. Frag­mentation and polarization further weakens the orga­nisational capacity and political leverage of civil society. Thailand Needs to Renegotiate Its Social Contract However, the transformation crisis can only be resolved if the adaptation of the order goes beyond the reform of the institutional framework, and includes the social and cultural order. A new order can neither be one-sidedly decreed by a small group of elites, nor forced upon the elites without provoking(violent) resistance. As long as key stakeholders feel left out, the political conflict will only escalate further. What is needed is a broad societal consultation process that enables society to determine the fundamental principles that will organise how peo­ple live together. Key actors need to agree on a new di­vision of labour in the production of order, legitimation of power, and distribution of resources. In other words: Thailand needs to renegotiate its social contract. How to Organise Deliberation under Stress? The difficulty lies in the organisation of such a process amidst the transformation crisis. Collective Dilemma and psychological factors work to block broad societal deli­12