4 INTRODUCTION I n February 2018, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the Middle East region as an“authentic quagmire,” 1 riven by interconnected fault lines: between Israelis and Palestinians; between Sunni and Shia; and along divisions created by the Cold War. It would, Guterres argued, no longer be possible to deal with each dimension separately: the situation had degenerated into a Gordian knot, all aspects of which – with the exception of Iraq –“are getting worse.” 2 The countries of the Eastern Mediterranean – Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Egypt and Cyprus – form the western edge of this turbulent region. Their geo­graphical position makes them a particular focus of European, US and Russian interest. Governments and societies are under pressure from the political, economic and security impacts of regional conflicts, including displacement, interruption of trade routes, and the spread of extremism. The region’s“unique deficit” 3 in peace and security architecture leaves it vulnerable to further escalation. The Eastern Mediterranean could do without a threat multiplier. Unfortunately, this region has also been identified as a climate change hot spot, where the effects of rising greenhouse gas emissions will be experienced much faster than the global mean rate. Temperatures are expected to escalate, impacting human welfare and food production; and in a region already “notorious for fresh water scarcity,” 4 at least 10-20 percent further drying is expected by mid­1 UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, address to the opening ceremony of the Munich Security Conference, 16 February 2018. 2 ibid. 3 For a thorough recent analysis of this problem, see Michael Wahid Hanna and Thanassis Cambanis, Order from Ashes, The Century Foundation/Brookings, 18 January 2018. 4 J. Lelieveld(2011), Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, A regional climate assessment by the Cyprus Institute, CIMME Report, Nicosia. https://www.cyi.ac.cy/images/CyI_Publications/EEWRCDownloads/CIMMEReport.pdf. The World Bank also notes that “Increased surface water stress due to climate change will occur in countries facing politically and environmentally fragile situations. Projections suggest that Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Morocco, and Syria will all experience significantly increased water stress driven by climate change.” Beyond Scarcity, World Bank, Washington DC, 2017, p. xlii.