27 IS CLIMATE CHANGE RECOGNIZED AS A SECURITY ISSUE? O fficials are not always willing to share frank assessments of national security threats with researchers: what follows is therefore an interpretation based on the comments of several individuals, together with analysis of available literature. 124 This research paper also provides a“snapshot” of official opinions taken during spring 2018, in a dynamic region in which priorities can change quickly. 125 With these caveats, it is possible to make the following points about perceptions of the seriousness of climate as a security threat. Environment and climate-related issues do not top any regional government’s security agenda. Instead – unsurprisingly – immediate conventional threats to national security remain prominent. The war in Syria continues to exert a profound impact on all neighbouring states: during spring 2018, Turkey and Israel were drawn further into the conflict, with Turkey conducting ground and air operations to take the town of Afrin and positions as far south as Idlib province, and Israel launching major air attacks, allegedly against Iranian targets. Egypt faces major challenges controlling militant operations in the Sinai, and is working with(and, according to some analysts, is increasingly reliant on) the Israeli military to control this part of its territory. 126 The Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues: in April-May 2018, the UN reported 124 Some academic and policy literature exists, and was incorporated into the analysis: on Israel, for example, Owen Alterman wrote in 2015 that“The issue of climate change lies low on the Israeli security agenda. The media rarely reports on it and politicians discuss it infrequently, if at all. Governmental and academic panels have tackled the climate change issue, particularly for its domestic impact, but in the security arena, the issue is absent from view”(Owen Alterman, Climate Change and Security: An Israeli Perspective, INSS, Strategic Assessment, Volume 18, No. 2, July 2015). But it is important to note that official and popular understanding of the climate-security nexus is moving fast, so literature only a few years old may not capture the current state of the debate. 125 In Egypt, for example, water scarcity achieved prominence as a national security issue during April 2018 because international negotiations over the Ethiopian dam had just collapsed; but this may not last if another security crisis occurs. Turkish analysts also reflected that concern about climate change – including the possibility of deaths from urban flooding- tended to increase immediately following extreme weather events, but interest also tended to subside relatively quickly and did not necessarily lead to government action. 126 “American officials say Israel’s air campaign has played a decisive role in enabling the Egyptian armed forces to gain an upper hand against the militants. But the Israeli role is having some unexpected consequences for the region, including on Middle East peace negotiations, in part by convincing senior Israeli officials that Egypt is now dependent on them even to control its own territory.”‘Secret Alliance: Israel carries out airstrikes in Egypt, with Cairo’s OK’, David D Kirkpatrick, New York Times, 3 February 2018.