Implications for the security of the Eastern Mediterranean 33 DIRECTIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY S cientific projections about the speed and scope of climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean have advanced considerably: we now know with greater certainty about the pace of climate change in this region, and the physical changes it will bring to specific locations. The potential political and security consequences of these changes are becoming increasingly evident. Despite the availability of this information, climate change continues to be considered primarily as a longer-term developmental challenge. With the exception of those directly affected – who often lack the means to voice their concerns at central government level – the risks still appear distant. Urban elites continue to wash their cars and water their lawns. And in a context in which crises continue to accumulate, 149 the leaders of regional states remain focused on tackling traditional security threats. Unless climate security risks become more visible to them and their senior officials, change on the ground is likely to outpace adaptation and mitigation efforts. Two changes could help secure the necessary shift in the pace of action to address climate-related risks: first, a concerted effort to increase the visibility of such risks might help to boost national and sub-national political leadership around the issue. Second, deeper integration of climate-related initiatives at a regional level, coordinated via a“variable geometry” of inter-state and sub-state action, might help to build momentum – especially if the unifying potential of the Mediterranean space is fully exploited. Direction 1: Increase the visibility of climate- and environment-related risks Leaders in this region are focused on day-to-day stability and political survival; in this context, they heed issues that have an immediate impact on their ability to sustain economic growth, government revenues, and national security. Warnings about physical changes that are expected to occur“by mid-century” may not seize their attention. 149 In May 2018, a group of senior analysts reported that their main concern was a confrontation between Iran and Israel, which might start either in Syria or Lebanon and spiral out of control.“What worries you most in the Middle East this summer?” A regular survey of experts on matters relating to Middle Eastern and North African politics and security. Michael Young, Carnegie Middle East Centre, 23 May 2018.