Publications of the FoundationAnalysis of the Bundestag elections 2025
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  • The analysis of the 2025 Bundestag election presents the key events of the election campaign, the results of election day and offers an initial outlook on upcoming challenges: After the premature end of the government in November 2024, the coalition parties were punished with an overall loss of almost 20 percentage points in the February 2025 elections. Although the CDU/CSU won the elections as the strongest party, it fell short of expectations. The AfD, which is categorised in some quarters as far-right, doubled its share of the vote, making it the second strongest party in the Bundestag. After a nail-biting night, it is clear that the FDP and BSW will not be part of the 21st Bundestag. The coming months will show whether this reduction in the size of the parliament from seven to five parties will lead to more stability or to even greater polarisation. It also remains to be seen how quickly a coalition can be formed. On one hand, the sheer urgency of the task demands that it be done quickly in view of current geopolitical upheavals and the need for a strong Europe. On the other hand, the tough election campaign has exposed the rifts between the parties, which means that finding a compromise will not be easy. The Social Democrats face a twofold challenge as a result of the election defeat: they must engage in a balancing act between necessary programmatic renewal and possible government responsibilities in a coalition with the CDU/CSU.
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