The Bundestag elections of 2021 represent a turning point, constituting a historic reset. The SPD is back and will be the strongest party in the German parliament going forward. The party's success in winning 25.7 per cent of second votes is closely linked to SPD candidate for chancellor Olaf Scholz. The era of Angela Merkel, by contrast, has come to an end with the Union's worst ever defeat, at 24.1 per cent. The CDU/CSU lost 8.9 percentage points in comparison with the 2017 Bundestag elections. Although the Greens, with 14.8 per cent, achieved their best ever result, by coming in third they failed in the goal they set themselves of taking the chancellery. The FDP takes fourth place, with 11.5 per cent of second votes, a slight improvement (0.7 percentage points).

The time is over - or at least only barely imaginable - when parties with 40 per cent of the votes could govern with a junior partner. The result of this election entails a new coalition arithmetic. Given that the party leaderships of the Union and the SPD have ruled out continuing the Grand Coalition the next government will be a tripartite alliance. The SPD, as election victor, has received a clear mandate to form the next government. The first 'traffic light' coalition in the Federal Republic will be a coalition of election winners, because all three parties made gains.