2. The Silk Road Economic Belt: interaction with regional security dynamics KEY FINDINGS The Silk Road Economic Belt: • has the potential to support the conditions for stability, development and human security through the provision of investment and public goods at the domestic level in Central and South Asia(specifically Pakistan); however, this will very much depend on practical details of implementation and the distribution of spoils, both between Chinese stakeholders and local states, as well as between the ruling elite and other sections of the population; • could exacerbate some of the structural governance problems in both Central and South Asia(specifically Pakistan), including corruption and lack of accountability; the capture of economic benefits by the political elite could exacerbate political instability over the long term; • has the potential, at the regional level, to stimulate greater cooperative efforts and political will among states to effectively address common security threats in the interest of mutual economic benefit in Central Asia. This is not(yet) the case in South Asia; • is not necessarily a harbinger of new conflict in South Asia, but has somewhat intensified historic competition over influence and security interests between China and Pakistan on the one side and India on the other, as well as bilaterally between Pakistan and India; • faces challenges from the Afghan security situation, and has little potential at this stage to help thaw relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. It may, over time, enhance regional cooperation on economic development in Afghanistan; and • does not currently conflict with Russian national security interests or regional security interests in the Eurasian Economic Union(EEU) and Central Asia. There are indications that Russia may be comfortable with China taking a more active security role in Central Asia. This section examines how the Belt interacts with security dynamics in two selected regions of common interest to China and to the EU, namely Central Asia(subsection 2.1) and South Asia(subsection 2.2). Central Asia is the primary land bridge through which two main Belt corridors connect China with the markets of Europe and the Greater Middle East. The CPEC is the main Belt corridor in South Asia and connects China with the Indian Ocean through the Arabian Sea. Both regions face complex and intertwined traditional and non-traditional threats, and are to differing degrees subject to intra-regional and geopolitical rivalry. Will the Belt help to resolve some of these security challenges or will it exacerbate them, and possibly even create new security threats? Compatibility of the Belt with development and security interests of Russia, an important actor in the Belt vision, is presented in subsection 2.3, particularly with regard to its interests in Central Asia. India’s perspectives on the Belt and CPEC are also presented. 2.1. Interaction with security dynamics in Central Asia Central Asia, home to approximately 66 million people, comprises a landlocked geographic region with significant resources, mostly in the form of oil, gas, mineral and water, distributed unequally among its five constituent states: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The region holds great potential as a transit bridge for eastern and western Eurasia, a primary commodities