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Powering the transition : rebuilding Central Asia's electricity grids for regional resilience
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Grid Topology Grid layouts reflect both geographical constraints and lega­cy planning. Kazakhstan operates the regions largest sys­tem, comprising over 467,000 km of transmission and distri ­bution lines. 7 Its National Electric Grid spans 27,800 km of 0,4 kV and above high voltage transmission lines, organized into three zones: North, South, and West. 8 The North-South 500 kV corridor moves primarily coal-fired power from the north to the energy-scarce southern regions. The previously isolated West zone is now being integrated with the Unified Energy System of Kazakhstan as part of the project, sup­ported by the Development Bank of Kazakhstan and the Eu­ropean Bank for Reconstruction and Development(EBRD). 9 Uzbekistans flatter terrain allows for a more centralized grid architecture. Its transmission system operator(TSO), the National Electric Networks of Uzbekistan(NEGU) man­ages over 12,800 km of 220-500 kV lines and 91 high-volt ­age substations. 10 In addition, the country serves as a re­gional transit corridor, enabling electricity flows among ­Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan grapple with spatial mismatches. In Kyrgyzstan, the 110-500 kV transmission system operat ­ed by National Electric Grid of Kyrgyzstan(NEGK) totals 7,541 km, with hydropower concentrated in the center(Tok ­togul reservoir) and demand clustered in the north(Bish­kek, Chuy Valley). 11 This requires long-distance transmis­sion over mountainous terrain. In Tajikistan, more than 1,945 km of 220–500 kV lines connect central and south ­ern generation zones with northern demand areas. 12 Chinese-­financed infrastructure, including the 500 kV Dushanbe-Khujand(2009) 13 and Dushanbe-Obigarm (2018) 14 lines, helped unify previously segmented zones. Infrastructural Challenges Across the region, infrastructure quality remains a main constraint. Kazakhstan reports that 76 % of its grid assets are worn out. 15 In Uzbekistan, over 60 % of transmission lines, 74 % of substations, and more than half of transform ­ers require modernization. 16 In Kyrgyzstan, 93 % of trans ­formers and 79 % of hydro units are beyond their service life. 17 Tajikistans utility operators estimate one-quarter of electricity is lost during generation, transmission, and dis­tribution, although this might be a conservative estimate. 18 According to UNECE, average transmission losses in Cen­tral Asia exceed 12.8 %, exceeding global norms. 19 The weakest link, however, is the distribution level, where infrastructure is typically older, less monitored, and more vulnerable to technical and commercial losses. In Uzbekistan, over 60 % of distribution assets are outdat ­ed, contributing to technical losses of up to 12 %. 20 Kazakh­stans twelve regional electricity companies report asset wear rates ranging from 65 % to 97 %. 21 Average distribu­tion losses are 14 %, ranging from 6 % to 18 %, depending on region and grid size, which is substantially higher than av­erage transmission losses of 5 %. 22 In Kyrgyzstan, 70 % of distribution assets have exceeded their life cycle, 23 with 7 Official Information Source of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan. 2022.Electricity Generated by RES for 2021 Exceeded Planned Indicators Bulat Aqchu ­laqov. https://primeminister.kz/en/news/reviews/2021-zhyly-zhek-ondirgen-elektr-energiyasynyn-kolemi-zhosparly-korsetkishterden-asty-b-aksholakov-282559. Accessed July 21, 2025. 8  KEGOC.About Us. Kegoc.kz, n.d. https://www.kegoc.kz/en/about/. Accessed July 21, 2025. 9  KEGOC.EBRD and Development Bank of Kazakhstan Invest in Kazakhstan Energy System Interconnection Project. Kegoc.kz, 2024. https://www.kegoc.kz/en/press-center/ press-releases/164955/. Accessed July 21, 2025. 10  Joint-Stock CompanyNational Electric Grid of Uzbekistan.About Company. Uzbekistonmet.uz, 2022. https://www.uzbekistonmet.uz/en/lists/view/79. Accessed July 21, 2025. 11  United Nations Economic Commission for Europe . Energy Connectivity in Central Asia: An Inventory of Existing National Energy Systems. 2023. https://unece.org/sites/de­fault/files/2023-11/EN_Energy %20Connectivity %20in %20Central %20Asia_V2.pdf. Accessed July 21, 2025. 12 Ibid. 13  China and Central Asia Studies.Tajikistan: 500 kV South-North Power Transmission Line. China-CentralAsia.org, n.d. https://china-centralasia.org/en/project/102#:~: text=Description %20of %20the %20project,Chinese %20architecture %20 %22Luban %20prize %22(accessed July 21, 2025). 14  Avesta Information Agency.500 kV HV Transmission Line Dushanbe-Obi Garm Showed Its Effectiveness[LEP 500 kV Dushanbe-Obi Garm pokazala svoyu effektivnost]. Avesta.tj, September 19, 2019. https://avesta.tj/2019/09/19/lep-500-kv-dushanbe-obi-garm-pokazala-svoyu-effektivnost/. Accessed July 21, 2025. 15 Kaztag.76 % Wear and Tear of Kazakhstans Power Grids, Dependence on Imports and Other Problems Results of the State Audit[76 % iznos electrosetey RK, zavisi ­most ot importa i drugiye problem itogi gosaudita]. Kaztag.kz, 2025. https://kaztag.kz/ru/news/76-iznos-elektrosetey-rk-zavisimost-ot-importa-i-drugie-problemy-itogi-­gosaudita. Accessed July 22, 2025. 16  Eurasian Development Bank.Uzbekistan and the EAEU: Perspectives and Potential Effects of Economic Integration[In Russian]. Reports and Working Documents, 2021. https://eabr.org/upload/EDB_2021_Report_Uzbekistan_and_the_EAEU_rus.pdf. Accessed July 22, 2025. 17  Akhmatova, Ilona.How Worn Out is the Equipment in Kyrgyzstans Energy Sector? Disappointing Calculations. Economist.kg, May 15, 2023. https://economist.kg/­novosti/2023/05/15/naskolko-iznosheny-oborudovaniya-v-energetike-kyrgyzstana-neuteshitelnye-podschety/. Accessed July 22, 2025. 18  Chorshanbiyev, Payrav.In Tajikistan, Some Steal Electricity While Others Freeze. Asia-Plus, February 5, 2024. https://www.asiaplustj.info/ru/news/tajikistan/econom­ic/20240205/v-tadzhikistane-odni-voruyut-drugie-myorznut. Accessed July 21, 2025. 19  United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. Outline for a Roadmap for a Regionally Interconnected Energy System in Central Asia. ECE/ENERGY/GE.5/2024/4. 2024. https://unece.org/sites/default/files/2024-08/ECE_ENERGY_GE.5_2024_4_e.pdf. Accessed July 22, 2025. 20 Eurasian Development Bank,Uzbekistan and the EAEU, p. 40 Ministry of energy of Uzbekistan as cited in 21  Petrocouncil.kz.When Will Kazakhstan Be Able to Fully Provide Itself with Electricity? Petrocouncil.kz, March 17, 2025. https://petrocouncil.kz/en/novost/kogda-kazah­stan-smozhet-polnostyu-obespechivat-sebya-sobstvennoj-elektroenergiej. Accessed July 21, 2025. 22 KEGOC . Analysis of Wholesale Market of Electric Energy and Capacity for 2023. KEGOC, 2024. https://www.kegoc.kz/upload/iblock/0d7/tgrsztaci3oypn9po5x1eoxn­z448si2t.pdf. Accessed July 22, 2025: p. 8. 23  The World Bank.The Electricity Sector in the Kyrgyz Republic to Improve Its Efficiency with World Bank Support. The World Bank, June 23, 2022. https://www.world­bank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/06/23/the-electricity-sector-in-the-kyrgyz-republic-to-improve-its-efficiency-with-world-bank-support. Accessed July 21, 2025. Current State of Play: Central Asias Grid Landscape 7