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Powering the transition : rebuilding Central Asia's electricity grids for regional resilience
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Expanding External Connectivity Alongside intra-regional efforts, Central Asian countries are seeking to connect their electricity systems with ex­ternal markets. CASA-1000, a$1.2 billion initiative 67 to ex­port surplus hydropower from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan during summer months, has faced delays but is regaining momentum. In 2024, Tajik ­istan and the Kyrgyz Republic inaugurated a 480 km, 500 kV line linking Datka and Sughd substations. 68 A new technical code for synchronized operations was also signed, laying the groundwork for parallel balancing. On the Afghan side, construction is 70 % complete, though an additional$100 million in financing is report ­edly needed. 69 Beyond CASA, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan signed a trilateral MoU in 2024 to develop aGreen En ­ergy Corridor linking Central Asia to Europe. 70 The pro­ject envisions a high-voltage submarine cable beneath the Caspian, overland lines through the South Caucasus, and a link to the EU via the Black Sea. In 2025, the three TSOs established a joint venture, Green Corridor Alliance, to coordinate this initiative. 71 Though still at the feasibility stage, it signals a strategic ambition to build a future Caspian-Black Seasupergrid, 72 connect­ing asynchronous systems via HVDC and advanced di­gital control. Uzbekistan has recently proposed to connect the region to Chinas grid through new high-voltage lines and po­tential long-term synchronization. 73 Meanwhile, Kazakh­stan operates in sync with Russias Unified Power System via CAPS, providing emergency balancing and mutual trade. 74 Its approach exemplifies a dual-track strategy: maintain synchronized flows with Russia while building technical capacity for eastward and westward intercon­nections, consistent with its broadermulti-vector for­eign policy. These external linkages reflect the rising role of electricity as a geoeconomic vector. Cross-border flows can deliver economic benefits but also heighten institu­tional and security challenges. Their success will hinge on improved governance, cyber resilience, and credible domestic system upgrades. The EUs Role in Central Asias Power Transition: Strategic Gaps, System Support, and Long-Term Levers The European Union has a clear strategic interest in sup­porting electricity sector infrastructure and reform in Cen­tral Asia. The regions importance as a source of clean power and an integral part of a future corridor for inter-re­gional electricity trade is increasing. As such, ensuring the interoperability and resilience of Central Asias grids, aligns directly with the EUs long-term objectives. Reliable power systems underpin economic development, renewable ener­gy integration, and regional cooperation- goals that mirror the EUs Global Gateway priorities, including climate ac­tion, sustainable connectivity, and geoeconomic diversifica­tion. At the pioneer EU-Central Asia Summit in April 2025, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen underscored this perspective. She highlighted transport corridors, critical raw materials, clean energy, and digital connectivity as the four pillars of future cooperation be­tween the regions. 75 In this light, the effectiveness of the 12 billion investment package the Head of Commission pledged(over half of which will be directed to hydropower and climate) 76 at the Summit, will ultimately depend on the availability of robust electricity grids that are often the neglected yet critical enablers of all four pillars. The EUs current engagement already reflects the empha­sis on both thehard andsoft dimensions of power sys­tems. It spans multilateral coordination, bilateral partner­ships, and financing through international financial institu­tions, particularly the EBRD and EIB. These efforts are guided by the 2019 EU Strategy for Central Asia, the 2023 Joint Roadmap, and the Team Europe Initiative on Water, Energy, and Climate. Over700 million has been pledged for energy, water, and climate-related projects in the re­67  CASA-1000.Home. https://www.casa-1000.org/ru/home-ru/. Accessed July 23, 2025. 68  Abdrakhmanova, Gulmira. 2025.Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan Launched HVDCDatka-SugdLine As Part of the CASA-1000. Kazinform, March 31, 2025. https://www. inform.kz/ru/kirgizstan-i-tadzhikistan-zapustili-lep-datkasugd-v-ramkah-proekta-casa-1000-de9e99. Accessed July 28, 2025. 69 BNE Intellinews.Taliban Seek$100mn from World Bank to Restart Work on CASA-1000 Electricity Transmission Project. BNE Intellinews, April 2, 2025. https://www. intellinews.com/taliban-seek-100mn-from-world-bank-to-restart-work-on-casa-1000-electricity-transmission-project-374739/. Accessed July 23, 2025. 70  Abbasova, Vusala.Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan Sign MoU to Merge Energy Systems. Caspian News, May 4, 2024. https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/azerbai­jan-kazakhstan-uzbekistan-sign-mou-to-merge-energy-systems-2024-5-4-0/. Accessed July 23, 2025. 71  Jalolova, Sadokat. 2025.Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan Launch Joint Venture for Green Energy Corridor. Times of Central Asia, July 7, 2025. https://timesca. com/uzbekistan-azerbaijan-and-kazakhstan-launch-joint-venture-for-green-energy-corridor/. Accessed July 28, 2025. 72  In OSullivan, Overland, and Sandalow . The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy,supergrids are defined as multinational electricity grids designed for resource-sharing and economies of scale. 73  Mamadaminov, Umid.China, Central Asian Countries Discuss Unified Power Grid Project Deputy Energy Minister of Uzbekistan. Gazeta.uz, June 21, 2025. https:// www.gazeta.uz/en/2025/06/21/ca-china-power-grid/. Accessed July 23, 2025. 74  Podkovalnikov, Sergey, and Lyudmila Chudinova.Electric Power Partnership Between Russia and Central Asian Countries.[In Russian]. Energeticheskaya Politika, May 7, 2024. https://energypolicy.ru/elektroenergeticheskoe-partnerstvo-rossii-i-stran-czentralnoj-azii/regiony/2024/16/07/. Accessed July 21, 2025. 75  European Commission. Speech by President von der Leyen at the Plenary Session of the First EU-Central Asia Summit. Speech, April 4, 2025. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/ presscorner/api/files/document/print/hu/speech_25_976/SPEECH_25_976_EN.pdf. Accessed September 1, 2025. 76  European Commission. 1 st European Union Central Asia Summit. Factsheet, April, 2025. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/api/files/attachment/881028/ EU-Central %20Asia_Factsheet_2025-04.pdf. Accessed September 1, 2025. 14 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung e.V.