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Arenas of far-right threat and democratic resilience
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Scenario(a) shows a case of resilient institutions despite widespread far-right party demand and party system per­missiveness. Much of Western Europe, with its long-stand­ing democratic institutions, potentially fits this scenario (hitherto), despite increasingly widespread support for ­far-right parties. Scenario(b) shows a case of party system resilience, de­spite weaken(ed) institutions and latent far-right party ­demand. Some cases in Southern Europe during the eco­nomic crisis, such as Greece, fit this scenario. Scenario(c) shows a case in which the far-right voter base is not as broad and rejection rates are high despite weak(ened) institutions and party system permissiveness. This could be a case in which the far right enjoys dispro­portionate power as a coalition partner or its performance has been amplified by the electoral or presidential sys­tem, but there is still a large group of opponents. Some Latin American countries, such as Brazil, fit this scenario: opposition to Bolsonaro was high and there was substan­tial mobilisation of non-far-right voters(Rovira Kaltwasser et al. 2024). What counter-strategies may be effective? This framework helps us to identify specific strategies in accordance with each dimension, as summarised in Table 1. A counter-strategy trilemma? However, there may be trade-offs to consider when decid­ing which dimension to prioritise, as a particular strategy might help to strengthen one dimension while simultane­ously weakening another. For example: Galvanisation of non-far-right voters(voter dimension): this strategy might help to weaken the far-right voter base but could backfire if the far right is in power (party-­system dimension) and it responds by further strengthening its executive power or proceeds with faster constitutional/ judicial reforms(institutional ­dimension). Examples include Fidesz in Hungary and PiS in Poland. Demonisation(party-system dimension): this strategy might help to address the issue of party system Counter-strategies across each dimension Table 1 Dimension Voter dimension Party-system dimension Institutional dimension Strategy Dissuasion of peripherals to »break« far-right coalitions Galvanisation of non–far-right ­voters Demonisation Isolation /cordon sanitaire Confrontation Organisation of parliamentary opposition across party families Legislature safeguards Judicial responses Civil society safeguards Details and examples Focus on existential issues, distributional conflicts and economic insecurities Reverse or oppose cuts to key services Tackle welfare competition, lack of access to public housing and job insecurity(e.g. Cavaillé and Ferwerda 2023) Organise protests and awareness campaigns to mobilise opposition Expose the far right as extremist rather than merely»right-wing« Prevent far-right parties from joining government Avoid cooperation with far-right parties as this may result in normalisation and exacerbate system permissiveness Avoid copying the far right on issues that it»owns«(e.g. Abou­Chadi et al. 2021; Halikiopoulou and Vlandas 2022). Communicate party visions that are distinct from far-right messages Mobilise parliamentary coalitions Emphasise distinctions between the centre-right and the far right Implement practices such as electoral monitoring and pursue the effective organisation of parliamentary opposition(Haggard and Kaufman 2021). Maximise the effectiveness of existing judicial mechanisms: legal sanctions/bans, infringement proceedings and litigation in supranational(e.g. European Court of Justice) and national courts (Blauberger and Kelemen 2016). Develop early-warning systems, systematic reports and emergency-response campaigns to expose violations of individual rights(Haggard and Kaufman 2021). Arenas of far-right threat and democratic resilience 4