Introduction The 2025 Bundestag elections have wrought a significant political change in Germany. After 16 years under Angela Merkel and coming out of the depths of the Covid-19 pan­demic, the so-called‘traffic light coalition’ started its term of office in 2021 with strong momentum and a promise of progress. But the war in Ukraine, the subsequent energy price crisis, rising inflation and relentless internal wrangling among the coalition partners severely undermined people’s trust in politics. All this was reflected in the results of the 2025 federal elections. → All the traffic-light coalition parties were severely pun­ished by the voters. While the Greens suffered a setback for the SPD, this was their worst result in a Bundestag election to date. Worst of all for the FDP, they did not make it back into the Bundestag. The CDU only benefit­ed slightly from all this, achieving their second-worst re­sult after their defeat in the 2021 Bundestag elections. Nevertheless, they are clearly the strongest force and thus have the task of forming a government. The AfD came in second and thus may form the largest opposi­tion party. Die Linke has made gains and is now stronger than at any time in the past ten years. By contrast, splin­ter party the BSW narrowly missed out on getting into parliament. → The AfD, parts of which are considered by German Intel­ligence to be on the extreme right, will certainly intensify debate in the Bundestag. As the largest opposition party, not only will it always be first to take the floor in parlia­ment, but it could also take the chair of the budget com­mittee. Generally speaking, the concern is that the tone in parliament will become even harsher and shriller and that the creeping normalisation of AfD positions will continue. All democratic parties must see it as a central task to counteract this. → People were driven by particular issues to cast their votes in this election. The high level of interest in the run-up to the election was also reflected in the high voter turnout. The AfD were most successful in encouraging non-voters to go to the polls, followed by the CDU and the BSW. → The new electoral law limits the number of Bundestag seats to 630. Another 23 candidates did not get into the Bundestag because their direct mandate was not covered by the second-vote share in the respective federal state. The map of Germany, which went red as a result of the first and second votes in 2021, has turned black and blue. The polarised debate about migration policy, which tended to dominate the election campaign, further fuelled the AfD’s rise. Nevertheless, the clear position of the left-wing opposition Die Linke on this issue also ena­bled it to mobilise strongly. → While coalition government statements were particularly volatile in the run-up to the elections, it was not until the night of the election that clarity emerged. Because the FDP and the BSW will not be represented in the Bunde­stag a coalition of two parties – namely the CDU/CSU and the SPD – will be able to form a government. The CDU/CSU have already ruled out the only other mathe­matically possible coalition of two parties, with the AfD. An also feasible coalition of three parties – namely the CDU/CSU, the SPD and the Greens – is considered un­likely. Other alternatives include minority governments or even new elections. If the SPD enters exploratory talks with the CDU, however, it will have to take a firm line on its negotiating positions. After a hard-fought election campaign, party-political rifts have only deepened, and both parties will have to give some ground in order to reach a compromise. → Their election defeat means that the Social Democrats immediately face a twofold challenge. First, they have to process the defeat through the filters of their manifesto, personnel and organisation. They need to clarify what they stand for, how they can restore lost trust and who will lay a course for the party’s future. Second, and this will be tricky, it may well be that it will form part of the government. In other words, it would have to balance government work fraught with compromise with political renewal. In that case, it must make clear at the outset what it wants to achieve in government and why it is taking on government responsibility. Analysis of the Bundestag elections 2025 3