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Analysis of the Bundestag elections 2025 : a heavy defeat with a twofold challenge for the social democracy
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Fig. 4 5 Comparison of second votes men and women Figures in per cent. Total 16 29 12 4 21 9 54 Women 18 27 13 4 18 11 63 Men 15 30 11 5 24 7 44 SPD CDU/CSU S S o o u u r r c c e e : : I I n n f f r r a a t t e e s s t t d d i i m m a a p p e e x x i i t t p p o o l l l l . . Greens FDP AfD Linke BSW Other For the Social Democrats, this election result continues the trend of an ageing electorate, on average. The SPD achieved their strongest results among 60 to 69 year-olds, with 21 per cent, and among those 70 years of age or old­er, with 25 per cent. At the same time, they also lost the most ground in these two groups, by around 10 percentage points. Significant shifts in voter behaviour by occu­pational group and education Within education groups, there has been a particularly sig­nificant shift among voters with low and medium levels of formal education. Among those with a low level of formal edu C ca o ti m on p , t a he ri C s D o U n /C o S f U s a e nd co Af n D d ar v e o n t o e w s fa r a m he e ad n . and While the CDU/CSU remains at the same level as in 2021, Figures in per cent. the AfD has gained 16 percentage points. The SPD, on the other hand, has lost 13 percentage points and comes in only third within this group. Among voters with a medium education, the CDU/CSU and the AfD also share first place, with 28 per cent. Here, too, the SPDs losses(–12 percentage points) roughly correspond to the AfDs gains (+13 percentage points). The CDU/CSU significantly im­proved their result among voters with a high level of for­mal education and thus took first place by a substantial margin, while the Greens and SPD recorded significant losses. Peoples voting behaviour also differs significantly when we look through the lens of employment status. Particular­ly large differences can be seen among manual workers, among whom the AfD managed to gain 17 percentage points, putting it, with 38 per cent, well ahead of the CDU/ wo CS m U e s n 22 per cent. The SPD has relinquished its former first place among this group of voters with a loss of 14 percent­age points, ending up at 12 per cent. Among pensioners, the CDU/CSU(39 per cent) and SPD(24 per cent) are in Total 16 29 Comparison of second votes by age group Figures in per ce W nt o . men 18 27 Ages 18–24 Ages 25–34 Men 15 30 Ages 35–44 Ages 45–59 SPD CDU/CSU Ages 60–69 Source: Infratest dimap exit poll. 70-plus Greens FDP 12 4 21 13 4 18 9 54 Fig. 6 11 63 11 5 24 7 44 AfD Linke BSW Other SPD CDU/CSU S S o o u u r r c c e e : : I I n n f f r r a a t t e e s s t t d d i i m m a a p p e e x x i i t t p p o o l l l l . . Greens FDP AfD Linke BSW Other 8 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung e.V.