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Analysis of the Bundestag elections 2025 : a heavy defeat with a twofold challenge for the social democracy
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Although Merz went into the election campaign as a prom­ising challenger, he did not manage to unite the sympa­thies of the voters behind him. Learning from the mistakes of the 2021 federal election, in which it long remained un­clear whether Armin Laschet or Markus Söder was to be the chancellor candidate, the CDU nominated Friedrich Merz as its chancellor candidate in September 2024. The unity between CDU and CSU was maintained throughout the election campaign, with no interference from Bavaria of the kind witnessed in 2021. Nevertheless, Friedrich Merz was unable to gain much political ground and, according to Infratest Dimaps DeutschlandTrend poll(February 2025), he gained only 7 percentage points more than Armin Laschet in the 2021 federal election(Merz 32 per cent, Laschet 25 per cent). Two central figures in the coalition government Robert Habeck and Christian Lindner also entered the election campaign for the Greens and the FDP. From the very out­set, Robert Habeck had stood for a different style of politi­cal communication, praised as more reflective and accessi­ble than that of other politicians. This is also reflected in his personal approval ratings, although these collapsed af­ter the 2023 Heating Act debacle. After Annalena Baerbock led the Greens into the 2021 election campaign, Robert Habecks candidacy for chancellor four years later was a foregone conclusion. He announced his candidacy as lead candidate via social media at his kitchen table, demonstra­tively setting himself apart from all his competitors. Focus on the campaigns Whether it be fears of a shift to the right, the desire for a stricter migration policy, concerns about the economic downturn, disappointment with the coalition government or the international earthquake caused by the new US ad­ministration numerous factors contributed to mobilise the voters. This meant that the parties were well placed to at­tract voters attention to their policy positions in this elec­tion campaign. People seem to have felt that this election was about something, and they wanted to be informed. Ac­cording to the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen polling institute, interest in this years election was particularly high, at 87 per cent, compared with just 76 per cent in 2021. This strong interest is also reflected in the new user record for theWahl-O-Mat app: while 21.2 million people used the Wahl-O-Mat as a voting aid before the 2021 federal elec­tion, the figure had already reached 21.5 million by early 2025. Never before have so many people wanted to make an informed decision. The high viewing figures for the vari­ous TV formats in which the chancellor and the leading candidates were brought together also underline the high level of interest. Almost all the parties tried to address the changed interna­tional security situation and the high level of social insecu­rity in their campaigns. The SPD made security their core campaign message, but did not limit this to defence. They also meant social security. Olaf Scholz was positioned as promising a stable, values-based course in difficult times. The Greens tried the opposite approach, contrasting in their campaign the turbulent times with the issue of confidence. Climate protection, previously the central theme, played only a minor role, as lead candidate Robert Habeck and a clear centrist course took centre stage. The tone of the CDU/CSU campaign was quite different. Here, the focus was on a change of approach and voting out any left-wing policies, which the CDU believes are re­sponsible for Germanys poor economic performance. That little wordagain stands out in the campaign(be proud again,assert yourself again,feel worthwhile again). In this way, the CDU targeted the conservative centre of the population and didnt shy away from(moderate) right-wing populist rhetoric and harsh attacks on the Greens. The FDP put all its eggs in one basket, namely Christian Lindner. The party promised thateverything can change if people were only able todare more Milei and Musk. Under this banner they focused on topics such as debureaucrati­sation, digitalisation and, above all, neoliberal economics. The AfD received unexpected support from its new Ameri­can allies during this election campaign. Both Elon Musk and US Vice President J.D. Vance spoke out in favour of the AfD in various contexts. They wilfully ignored the AfDs ha­bitual anti-Americanism. In view of the many attacks, the partys campaign focused entirely on its core theme of hos­tility towards foreigners and migration. At the start of the election campaign, Die Linke feared that it would not be able to get back into the Bundestag after the splintering of the BSW. In response it launchedOpera­tion Silver Hair, in which the three prominent party veter­ans Gregor Gysi, Bodo Ramelow and Dietmar Bartsch were supposed to win three direct mandates and thus ensure Die Linkes re-entry to the Bundestag. As it turned out, their clear stance in the polarised migration debate gave Die Linke a substantial boost in the polls. In the election cam­paign, the party focused on young, urban voters, but it also focused on classic social issues such as housing, pensions and redistribution, thus presenting itself as acaring party. Party political newcomer the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) had a rough landing. After the new party managed to string together success after success last year, this trend came to an abrupt halt. The BSW seemed to have lost its magic, the euphoria fizzled out, and its visibility in the elec­tion campaign was poor. Recapturing the digital space? Never before has so much been invested in internet cam­paigning in Germany as in this election: according to analy­ses by the ZDF television channel(Schneider/Klein 2025), Analysis of the Bundestag elections 2025 13