How did the election campaign go? Little movement in the opinion polls Looking at the averaged survey results since the collapse of the‘traffic-light’ government on 6 November 2024, the first thing that catches the eye is their uniformity. There are no major jumps up or down; only slight movements can be seen and these only in a direct comparison of individual values(key dates 6 November 2024 and 21 February 2025). There are thus only minor effects on the winners‘ and losers’ sides: the biggest percentage gains in the polls in the short winter election campaign were recorded by Die Linke, the AfD and the Greens, each with almost 3 percent­age points. This is something of a relief for Die Linke in particular, which had been written off, because it ensures that it will get back into the Bundestag. On the losing side, the parties suffering the heaviest losses overall are the Un­ion parties, which(together) have fallen just below 30 per cent, having been unable to capitalise on the early elec­tions, and the BSW, which has failed to reach the 5 per cent threshold. The values for the SPD and the FDP have stagnated. The‘D-Day’ staged by the FDP in a bid to break out of its doldrums did not pay off: only in the last stretch, shortly before election day, and only in isolated surveys did it temporarily manage to clear the election hurdle. The SPD, which provided the chancellor, failed to stage a come­back like the one in 2021 and remains stuck at just under 16 per cent. Fig. 9 ‌ Opinion poll development since the collapse of the traffic light coalition Figures in per cent. 20.12.2024 Attack in Magdeburg 22.1.2025 Attack in Aschaffenburg 6.11.2024 Collapse of the traffic light coalition 29.1.2025 Vote on a motion for a resolution in the Bundestag 40 13.2.2025 Attack in Munich 9.2.2025 First TV debate Scholz/Merz 20 5 0 1.11.24 SPD 1.12.24 CDU/CSU Greens Source: Pollytix Wahltrend(https://pollytix.de/wahltrend/) – as of 21.2,2025. 10 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung e.V. 1.1.25 FDP AfD 1.2.25 Linke BSW