Voter migration SPD SPD S S o o u u r r c c e e : : I I n n f f r r a a t t e e s s t t d d i i m m a a p p E E x x i i t t P P o o l l l l . . +250,000 +120,000 +60,000 –100,000 –440,000 –560,000 –630,000 –720,000 –1,760,000 F F i i g g . . 1 1 2 2 ‌ Non-voters FDP Other Greens BSW Linke First Voters/ Deceased AfD CDU/CSU level of interest in postal voting and problems with timely under 8,150,000 second votes, a loss of just over 3,750,000 delivery and return of the documents. votes. By far the largest recipient of SPD votes was the CDU(1,760,000). This is followed by the AfD(720,000) The interest of Germans living abroad in participating in and first-time voters/deceased(630,000). However, sub­this year’s federal election was also high. More than stantial votes were also lost to Die Linke(560,000) and the 200,000 people registered on the electoral roll. However, BSW(440,000). The smallest losses were measured in rela­the V F o ed t e e ra r l m Re i t g ur r n a in t g io O n ffic S er P r D eceived complaints from Germans living abroad that it was not possible – or barely tion to the Greens(100,000). The SPD, on the other hand, gained most from non-voters(250,000), followed by former possible – to deliver the election letters in time due to the shortened deadlines in the event of an early election. Legal FDP vote + r 2 s 5 ( 0 1 , 2 0 0 0 , 0 000) and other pa N rt o i n e ­s vo (6 te 0 r , s 000). repercussions are therefore to be expected and the courts will have to clarify the extent to which the election guide­The CDU an + d 1 C 20 S , U 00 r 0 eceived almos F t D 1 P 4,160,000 second votes, an increase of almost 3 million. The gains resulted lines, as derived from Article 38 of the Basic Law, have been violated. primarily from + fo 6 r 0 m ,0 e 0 r 0 voters of the O ‘ t t h ra er ffic light’ coalition: according to the migration model, the CDU received –100,000 1,760,000 votes from the SPD, 1,3 G 5 r 0 e , e 0 n 0 s 0 votes from the FDP, and an estimated 460,000 votes from the Greens. A Voter migration SPD –440,00 s 0 ubstantial increase of 900,000 vo B te S s W came from non-vot­ers. Around 360,000 votes came from other parties. The question of which party has given votes to which other –560,000 Linke political camp or has gained votes is of great interest to Despite winning the election, the CDU suffered major vote the general public. However, collecting this information is methodologically very difficult and its significance is con­–6 l 3 o 0 s , s 0 e 0 s 0 : just over 1 million votes we F n ir t s to V t o h ters A / fD. Some Deceased 620,000 votes went to first-time voters/deceased and a troversial. Our analysis is based on the exit poll conducted by Infratest Dimap in selected polling stations or electoral s – i 7 m 2 i 0 la ,0 r 0 n 0 umber to the SPD. What b A o fD th parties have in com­mon is that they are strongly supported by older voters, so districts. The graphics show the number of votes gained or lost by each party. In addition to the competing parties, it can be – a 1 s , s 7 u 6 m 0, e 0 d 00 for both parties C t D h U at /C so S m U e of their loyal voters have died since the last election. The Union is esti­the S r o e ur a ce r : e In a fr l a s te o st n di o m n ap -v E o xi t t e P r o s ll , . first-time voters and deceased mated to have given the BSW, which was running for the voters. These are extrapolated values, so the proportions first time, 220,000 votes, and Die Linke 70,000 votes. and general trends are of more interest than the figures themselves. The Greens lost slightly over 1 million second votes in the 2025 federal election, reaching just over 5,760,000 second The SPD’s historic defeat and heavy losses can also be votes. The largest loss of votes occurred in the direction of traced in the migration model. The SPD still received just Die Linke(700,000). The CDU also lost 460,000 votes. Fur­16 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung e.V.