E E v v a a l l u u a a t t i i o o n n o o f f c c o o a a l l i i t t i i o o n n m m o o d d e e l l s s Led by the first-named party. Figures in per cent. Led by the first-named party. Figures in per cent. CDU/CSU+ SPD SPD+ Greens+ Linke CDU/CSU+ Greens CDU/CSU+ AfD Bad Indifferent Good Don‘t know Source: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen(Elections Research Group), Politbarometer February III 2025, KW 08. Source: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen(Elections Research Group), Politbarometer February III 2025, KW 08. Fig. 23 ‌ Fig. 23 Among the voters, a black-red alliance has the highest ap­proval ratings at 39 per cent. Having said that, the propor­tion of voters opposed to this option is even larger, at 44 per cent. However, the same applies to all other coalition models, with rejection outstripping approval. This is also clearly evident for the other two-party alliance, although that is not available to the CDU based on the election re­sults. A coalition of the CDU and the Greens is viewed sceptically by 62 per cent, while only 25 per cent favour this model. By far the greatest public rejection is of the two-party alliance based on the two parties with the most seats: a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the AfD is re­jected by a full 76 per cent of respondents, while only 18 Evaluation of coalition models per cent support such an alliance. Led by the first-named party. Figures in per cent. best case, this can create positive pressure to reach agreement rapidly. 3. By ruling out the AfD and Die Linke as coalition part­ners, the coalition options for the CDU are severely lim­ited. This strengthens the SPD’s negotiating position, as the CDU cannot afford to fail without risking new elec­tions. A clear division of roles between chief negotiator and junior partner is thus blurred. This does not neces­sarily make the situation any less complicated. Germans have a right to be well governed. And in view of the global political situation, a united federal government that speaks with a strong voice in and for Europe is es­sential to survive the current geopolitical upheavals. What might hinder the upcoming coalition negotiatio C n D s U ? /CSU+ SPD 1. Positions have hardened since the debate on the col­lapse of the firewall between the CDU/CSU and the cen­SPD+ Greens+ Linke tre-left parties. Nevertheless, a different tone must be found quickly to ensure that constructive government formation is not hindered. While right-wing populists de­spise po C l D it U ic / a C l S c U om + p G r r o e m en ise, it should be all the more im­portant for parties within the democratic spectrum to value it as a central asset of a liberal democracy. Even if compromi C se DU do /C e S s U no + t A s f e D em easy after the events and debates of the closing phase of the election campaign, it must nevertheless be found quickly in the interest of all parties. Bad Indifferent Good Don‘t know 2. The AfD doubled its votes from the last federal election. Source: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen(Elections Research Group), Politbarometer February III 2025, KW 08. At 20.8 per cent, it will be the largest opposition party and will certainly pursue this role even more loudly than before. Against this background, a stable government is needed quickly to counteract the propaganda and an opposition that will do everything in its power to desta­bilise the government and delegitimise its work. In the Analysis of the Bundestag elections 2025 25