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Analysis of the Bundestag elections 2025 : a heavy defeat with a twofold challenge for the social democracy
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What has changed in comparison with the previous election? Its about something: highest voter turnout since reunification One of the positive surprises of the early election was the sharp increase in voter turnout: 82.5 per cent of those eligi­ble to vote or almost 50 million German citizens exer­cised their right to vote. This is a new record since reunifi­cation. During this period voter turnout in federal elections has generally been below 80 per cent. The only exception was the 1998 election, in which voters ousted Helmut Kohl, when voter turnout rose to 82.2 per cent. The lowest voter turnout, by contrast, was in the 2009 federal election, when only 70.8 per cent of eligible voters went to the polls. After that, voter turnout rose slightly. In the previous feder­al election, in 2021, 76.4 per cent of eligible voters partici­pated: 73.8 per cent in eastern Germany and 77.1 per cent in Western Germany exercised their right to vote. In 2025, voter turnout in the east was still slightly lower than in the west at 80.3 per cent compared with 83.1 per cent. However, the figures are gradually becoming more equal, with voter turnout in eastern Germany having risen by 7.4 percentage points, slightly more than in the west (+5.9 percentage points). The lowest voter turnout was in the federal states of Saxony-Anhalt(77.7 per cent) and Bremen(77.8 per cent). In contrast, Bavaria had the high­est voter turnout at 84.5 per cent. A look at the electoral districts with the highest and lowest voter turnout Political scientists usually mention such factors as resourc­es, motivation and networks when trying to explain levels of voter turnout. Those who have more resources, such as income and education, are more likely to participate in elections. Also important, however, is whether someone is interested in politics and believes that they can achieve something politically themselves. In addition, the views on voting and politics they might encounter in their social en­vironment also matter. Based on the 2017 and 2021 elections, political scientist Armin Schäfer(2023) has shown, first, that over time the level of voter turnout does not change significantly. Elec­toral districts with high voter turnout in the last election are also likely to see high voter turnout in the next. Second, indicators such as the average income or unemployment rate in a constituency can be used to make a fairly reliable prediction of voter turnout. This finding apparently also applies to the 2025 federal election: as in 2021, the highest voter turnout in an elec­toral district was in the Munich­Land constituency, at 88.1 per cent. It is followed by Cologne II(88.0 per cent), Starn­berg–Landsberg am Lech(87.7 per cent), Münster and Coesfeld-Steinfurt II(both 87.5 per cent). In the Bavarian electoral districts and Coesfeld-Steinfurt, the CSU and CDU achieved around 40 per cent of the second votes. In Co­logne II and Münster, on the other hand, the Greens were just ahead of the CDU with 25.8 and 26.6 per cent of the second votes and also won the direct mandate with over 30 per cent of the first votes. The lowest voter turnout in any electoral district, as in 2021, was in Duisburg II, at 73.5 per cent. However, voter turnout there increased by more than 10 percentage points. Other electoral districts with comparatively low voter turn­out are Bremen II–Bremerhaven(73.9 per cent), Gelsen­kirchen(74.5 per cent) and Essen II(75 per cent), are all electoral districts in which the SPD was ahead of the other parties in terms of second votes, except for Gelsenkirchen, where the AfD was able to gain 11.9 percentage points and is now just ahead of the SPD. Comparing the 30 electoral districts with the highest and lowest voter turnouts, it can be seen that voter turnout in­creased more in the constituencies with the lowest voter turnout, namely by 8 percentage points. By contrast, voter turnout in the constituencies with the highest voter turnout increased by only 4.2 percentage points. Voting by post: popular, but made more difficult by shorter deadlines Postal voting long played only a minor role in elections in Germany. In 1990, the proportion of postal voters was still below 10 per cent. Since then, however, the propor­tion has risen continuously. In the 2009 federal election, for the first time, there were no longer any obstacles to applying for postal voting, as a result of which the pro­portion exceeded 20 per cent for the first time. In the 2021 federal election, held under Covid-19 restrictions, 47 per cent of people used the postal voting option. The postal voting figures for the 2025 federal election are not yet available. The media reported both a continued high Analysis of the Bundestag elections 2025 15