What do the results mean for government formation? The new government will be a coalition between two par­ties. After the failure of the‘traffic light’ coalition, the first three-way coalition at the federal level is seen as a failed experiment. With three parties fluctuating around the 5-per cent threshold, the election campaign was characterised by uncertainty as to whether this wish could come true. The election results now show that only five parties have man­aged to enter the Bundestag, which makes it possible, at least mathematically, to form a coalition between two par­ties. This means an alliance between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, but also with the AfD. Even though Friedrich Merz did not succeed in leading the CDU back above the 30 per cent mark, the task of forming a government now lies in his hands, as Olaf Scholz also announced in the Willy-Brandt-Haus immediately after the election result. Because Merz has ruled out a coalition with the AfD, the only mathematically possible two-party alli­ance is a coalition with the SPD. As SPD General Secretary Matthias Miersch has already announced, however, forma­tion of a coalition is not a foregone conclusion. The elec­tion campaign has certainly highlighted the differences be­tween the two parties, so the outcome of the negotiations cannot be taken for granted and it remains to be seen whether an agreement can be reached. Furthermore, there will be a membership vote within the SPD, according to the party’s General Secretary. The difficult balancing act for the upcoming negotiations lies between the assertion of social democratic demands and the political responsibility to support the only politically possible alliance option be­tween two democratic parties. As already mentioned, the rifts that opened up especially during the final weeks of the election campaign mean that the upcoming negotia­tions will not be easy. Arithmetically possible coalitions Figures in number of mandates per party. CDU/CSU+ AfD 208 316 seats 152 CDU/CSU+ SPD 208 120 CDU/CSU+ Greens 208 85 SPD+ Greens 120 85 CDU/CSU+ SPD+ Greens 208 120 85 SPD+ Greens+ Linke 120 85 64 Note: Majority with 316 seats. Source: Federal Returning Officer.. Fig. 22 ‌ 360 seats 328 seats 293 seats 205 seats 413 seats 269 seats 24 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung e.V. Arithmetically possible coalitions